See No Depression
h/t some guy on Sadly: Numbers racket: Why the economy is worse than we know—By Kevin P. Phillips (Harper’s Magazine)
The interesting thing is that, when you look at the Bush years in the aggregate, for most people the sense that the economy was bullish never came into play. What we had was a deep, painful recession followed by a paper recovery - with new jobs worth half of the ones gone forever, booming numbers principally attributable to tiny economic outliers, and increasing general misery in spite of outward prosperity.
The current numbers are difficult to come to terms with at first - if one accepts the U5/6 figures, for instance, our unemployment rates look typical of West Africa - but we’ve been hit with a number of nagging, terrifying reminders that the worst is yet to come.
The Invisible Famine
It is popular among wingnuts to harp on the one statistic they have to back up their irrational belief in a universally rosy economy - that is, the major obesity problem currently stalking the American underclass. The thing is, they’re wrong by way of being right: the increasing obesity of the poor is an alarming sign, and as everyday goods surge uncontrollably in price it may well grow worse. This is because America is suffering from an invisible famine.
The invisible famine is, like any other famine, purely distributional - while it has been (and will be even further) aggravated by increasing demand for staples and increasing expense for food and freight trucking, the basic issues are economic and social. When one hears that a majority of Americans are overweight - and the number is growing by staggering amounts - it is worth remembering the importance of the binging cycle in weight gain.
The fastest way to gain weight is by a binge cycle; in a binge cycle, a person will go long amounts of time without eating sufficiently and, when food becomes available, will gorge themselves with what presents itself. The reason that we are seeing it become important now is simple - the American wage-earner has seen her or his income rise at a rate beggared by inflation, especially of everyday goods. We work longer hours for less pay than our parents. Alone, this would not by itself produce a binge cycle; but along with losing decent, regular pay, we find ourselves shopping at large, hostile stores in fortified compounds dozens of miles from home. Where food purchases were once a semi-regular event, the act of buying food is now a behavior limited to one or two times a month - if that. Buying food more regularly has, especially with the rise of gas prices and the enormous social and economic push out to the exurbs, become a luxury most Americans cannot afford.
The kicker? This is a national version of a previously local phenomenon. In the Deep South and rural West especially, the supermarket was a much earlier and more tenacious development; communities latched to the poison teat of Safeway and Piggly Wiggly enjoyed the horrible dietary and bodily health the entire country does now, and their local governments - often dominated by Pollyannaish neolibs - openly encouraged the slump in labor standards, employment regularity, and pay that would turn the weekly shop into the half-monthly, the monthly, and bi-monthly. America is under the same masters that lashed the backs of rural California and Georgia now, and suffers from the same disease.
In short, the anatomy of the invisible famine is this: due to increasing homogeneity, poor service, and rising cost from local restaurants - and the increasing reluctance by employers to offer regular breaks or reliable catering - most calories are consumed in a single set of meals late in the day, and there is only a decent amount of wet, fibrous, and ash-rich food in the first week of the month. The fruit rot, and we start eating principally protein, simple sugars, and fat; then the meat goes hard and we’re subsiding on old bread and ice cream for half a month - until the next paycheck comes in, for credit is nowhere near as free as would allow us to actually live on siege shopping. When we are able to buy food again, we eat well and rich; and the bitter irony of the binge cycle is that we can consume enough calories to gain several pounds in a week mostly spent starving. And there, as well, is the horrible irony of the invisible famine: we are growing fat - obese, even - while our lives grow worse than ever before, and the demons who inflict it all on us are praised for it by their hand-fed running-dogs.
We have all of the misery of the rich life, all of the aches and pains of fatness, without the joys of achieving it. We have grown morbidly obese on gruel. Never say that the Man never learns - in this famine, at least, there are no poking ribs to draw the moralist’s camera as the masses starve all the same.
Bears on Fremont Street
The phrase ‘recession-proof’ is a little silly, but it does have a logic all its own. There are in fact several places that can draw business reliably no matter how bad the economy gets - that is, if there’s any hope of it recovering. Las Vegas is supposed to be one of them - after all, we receive tourism from all over the world, and the rich account for a disproportionate amount of our tourist traffic. So no short-term downturn in the US should affect us, right?
Wrong: to the bitter delight of those of us who chose to seek a degree, the local Craigslist is flooded with complaints and terrified mendicants cast out of the casinos’ trough. A truism in Vegas or anywhere else that profits from addiction is this: if you let your kids take a job out of school, they’ll make $70,000 starting out - and they’ll never go back - and they’ll make that for the rest of their life. It’s at least some consolation to the people who are low enough on the ladder that $70,000 is a decent aspiration - while Las Vegas might be all ‘burb, at least we don’t have an inner city. (Well, we do, but it’s well hidden.) The casino jobs are vanishing - under an increasing suspicion that the money isn’t there to offer $60,000 salaries to starting-level valets, that the economy has been too bad for too long to justify taking more people on at more than minimum wage.
I don’t know how well it works as an economic indicator, but I’m inclined to say that nothing good can come from the bear economy stalking even Fremont Street - and nothing good can come of unemployment in the Disneyland of the world.
